Do you think a "meta" exists for game genre popularity? You have worked on WoW and currently LoL, both of which are the most popular game of their time. During their reign the most popular genre also align with the respective game. Do you think if LoL ever declines it would be due a "meta shift"?
I am assuming by "meta" in this context you mean that MOBAs are popular now and MMOs were popular before that and maybe RTS was popular before that and that if any of us could predict the next big genre that we'd be pretty happy indeed.
If that's what you mean, then yes I agree. I think it's more likely (more likely, not impossible) that League declines because players move onto a different genre entirely than because they move on to a competitor MOBA. I am not making that claim because I think League is just that superior to every other game in every way. I make that case mostly because the switching cost feels soooo high. As a player, after you have made a lot of progress on one game, whether it's CS, TF2, Destiny, WoW or League, including learning everything you have learned and potentially making friends to play with and so on, the "sunk cost" feels insurmountable. It's more likely IMO for players just to quit when they get frustrated than to switch to a different game in the same genre if they get frustrated. Obviously there are players who do switch; it absolutely happens. I just don't think that is the phenomenon that causes games to eventually age and decline.
Unless they are very expensive to maintain, games also tend to just decline, not to die completely. There are plenty of players still committed to some very old games.
To be clear, I'm also not predicting that League is going to decline anytime soon, and just thinking about that makes me sad. :(
If that's what you mean, then yes I agree. I think it's more likely (more likely, not impossible) that League declines because players move onto a different genre entirely than because they move on to a competitor MOBA. I am not making that claim because I think League is just that superior to every other game in every way. I make that case mostly because the switching cost feels soooo high. As a player, after you have made a lot of progress on one game, whether it's CS, TF2, Destiny, WoW or League, including learning everything you have learned and potentially making friends to play with and so on, the "sunk cost" feels insurmountable. It's more likely IMO for players just to quit when they get frustrated than to switch to a different game in the same genre if they get frustrated. Obviously there are players who do switch; it absolutely happens. I just don't think that is the phenomenon that causes games to eventually age and decline.
Unless they are very expensive to maintain, games also tend to just decline, not to die completely. There are plenty of players still committed to some very old games.
To be clear, I'm also not predicting that League is going to decline anytime soon, and just thinking about that makes me sad. :(
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Carnicore