What happens when Haredi Jews become a majority in Israel?
This is set to happen in the 60s or 70s. On that time scale, my predictions are dominated by global trends in automation, genetic engineering and artificial intelligence. Such trends could easily drive Haredim apart from other Jews; my hope, indeed one of my long-term goals, is that Judaism and Jewishness are binding enough both to support a confederal arrangement with a common defence policy and cooperation in the face of all the weirdness that will be going on in ROW (and Israel too, of course).
I can give a less "zomg singularity" response too. Condition on such technologies having less effect than I anticipate. Then some time before the Haredim attain numerical majority, they could become a very serious drain on public finances. This is because they 1) tend to be significantly less economically productive and 2) exploit what is already a powerful swing vote in the Knesset to obtain gibsmedats.
We will see a situation where either the productive sector of the Israeli economy demands economic disconnection, or where pressure is applied to the Haredim to make themselves less dependent on state largesse. They're quite capable of doing so; a couple of years in the army seems to go a long way in integrating the average Haredi boy (Haredi girls almost never serve; on the other hand, they get a better secular education). Bear in mind that the Haredim cannot *force* anything, even as a majority, without themselves becoming as capable as the seculars.
The deciding factor between these two options is probably regional politics. The Islamic threat pushes us together, making us less willing to contemplate confederation (which would be my preferred outcome). Thus, we'll see the continued growth of Religious Zionism; settlements will grow, more and more Haredim will serve in the IDF, Arab residents – and citizens – of Israel will be pushed to make formal declarations of allegiance to the state (with predictable consequences), and the liberal internationalist Left will be further marginalised. Palestinians will get roughly the package Bibi is currently offering them, possibly with a couple of land swaps (e.g. the Triangle). The anti-Zionist Haredim will be excluded from political life* even more than they are now. By the time Haredim have a majority, secular and 'traditional' Israelis will be much better disposed towards them.
* How this will be effected, I can't say. The largest anti-Zionist Haredi sect in Israel is Edah HaChareidis. This is part of their "anthem":
To the rule of the heretics we are not believers,
We are not believers!
And their laws we do not honour,
we do not honour!
(From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edah_HaChareidis#Anthem)
In practice, their bark is worse than their bite. Nevertheless, this sort of thing is blatantly inimical to any sovereign entity, whether democratic, despotic, monarchical, neocameral...
I can give a less "zomg singularity" response too. Condition on such technologies having less effect than I anticipate. Then some time before the Haredim attain numerical majority, they could become a very serious drain on public finances. This is because they 1) tend to be significantly less economically productive and 2) exploit what is already a powerful swing vote in the Knesset to obtain gibsmedats.
We will see a situation where either the productive sector of the Israeli economy demands economic disconnection, or where pressure is applied to the Haredim to make themselves less dependent on state largesse. They're quite capable of doing so; a couple of years in the army seems to go a long way in integrating the average Haredi boy (Haredi girls almost never serve; on the other hand, they get a better secular education). Bear in mind that the Haredim cannot *force* anything, even as a majority, without themselves becoming as capable as the seculars.
The deciding factor between these two options is probably regional politics. The Islamic threat pushes us together, making us less willing to contemplate confederation (which would be my preferred outcome). Thus, we'll see the continued growth of Religious Zionism; settlements will grow, more and more Haredim will serve in the IDF, Arab residents – and citizens – of Israel will be pushed to make formal declarations of allegiance to the state (with predictable consequences), and the liberal internationalist Left will be further marginalised. Palestinians will get roughly the package Bibi is currently offering them, possibly with a couple of land swaps (e.g. the Triangle). The anti-Zionist Haredim will be excluded from political life* even more than they are now. By the time Haredim have a majority, secular and 'traditional' Israelis will be much better disposed towards them.
* How this will be effected, I can't say. The largest anti-Zionist Haredi sect in Israel is Edah HaChareidis. This is part of their "anthem":
To the rule of the heretics we are not believers,
We are not believers!
And their laws we do not honour,
we do not honour!
(From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edah_HaChareidis#Anthem)
In practice, their bark is worse than their bite. Nevertheless, this sort of thing is blatantly inimical to any sovereign entity, whether democratic, despotic, monarchical, neocameral...
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Ellie Kesselman
